We are a little more than a month into the college basketball season, and a lot has changed since the preseason projections in early November.
North Carolina came into the season ranked No. 1. Entering last week; the 8-4 Tar Heels weren’t even ranked in the Top 25. Preseason darling Creighton has stumbled out of the blocks, going 6-6 in its first 12 games.
With teams under and over-performing during the first month of the season, it’s a good time to analyze the futures market. Here are three teams that are worth a look heading into the new year with odds provided by BetMGM.
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College Basketball futures predictions and picks to win March Madness
Gonzaga +1600
This isn’t the most talented Gonzaga team we’ve seen. The last two versions of the Bulldogs had sure-fire lottery picks in Jalen Suggs and Chet Holmgren. This team doesn’t have that guy, although Drew Timme is arguably the best player in college basketball.
I didn’t love the Zags entering the season when they were around 10/1 to win it all. However, after blowout losses to Texas and Purdue, the Bulldogs dropped to 22/1 before settling at 16/1. If you like Gonzaga to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, now is the time to strike. The Bulldogs are starting WCC play where they might lose one game, so this is the best number betters will see for the rest of the season.
A lot was made of Gonzaga’s two early losses, but they also own quality wins over Michigan State, Kentucky, Xavier, Kent State, and Alabama. The Bulldogs rank No. 2 in offensive efficiency and could make another Final Four run if they avoid athletic, ball-pressuring teams like Texas.
I think the Zags are worth a shot at this price.
North Carolina (25/1)
I mentioned North Carolina’s slow start above, but the Tar Heels might be the best value on the board right now at 25/1. Remember, UNC started off slowly last season, too, before making a run to the championship game as a No. 9 seed.
The bottom line is North Carolina is still the exact same team that was +900 to win the NCAA Tournament just over a month ago. It is still one of the most talented teams in the country, with the deadly trio of Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, and R.J. Davis leading a dynamic offense. If the defense can improve by March, North Carolina will once again be a dangerous NCAA Tournament team.
The Tar Heels have some issues, but it’s hard to pass up the value at 25/1.
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Arkansas (25/1)
A team flying a little under the radar is Arkansas. The Razorbacks started 10-1 and have one of the most loaded rosters in the country.
The loss of forward Trevon Brazile hurts, but this is still a starting lineup that features three future pro players. Led by freshman sensation Nic Smith and senior Jalen Graham, Arkansas is a versatile team that can beat its opponents playing different styles, which is always important in the NCAA Tournament.
The Razorbacks’ calling card is a swarming defense that ranks ninth in defensive efficiency, 12th in turnover percentage, and 18th in defensive rebounding percentage, according to KenPom. The one negative is Arkansas doesn’t shoot well from 3-point range, but the Razorbacks check every other box that makes a legitimate title contender.
A lot of people haven’t seen Smith play yet, but he’s a future top-5 pick who can put a team on his back. The Hogs have reached the Elite Eight in the past two years. They have the talent to go even further this season.
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